As we look toward the end of 2026, the British Columbia real estate market is navigating a slow and gradual recovery.

According to the British Columbia Real Estate Association's (BCREA) Third Quarter Housing Forecast Update released in August 2026, the market continues to face several macro headwinds. Persistent geopolitical volatility, a broader economic slowdown, and affordability challenges are weighing on buyer confidence across the province.

Here is the outlook for Victoria and BC through the end of the year:

• BC Sales Volume: Provincial MLS® residential sales are forecast to finish 2026 down slightly by 1.2% (69,325 units). However, a 7.5% rebound is expected in 2027 as the provincial economy picks up.
• Pricing Pressures: With BC active listings near their highest levels since 2015 and elevated new-home inventory, the average provincial home price is expected to fall by 1.2% in 2026 to $941,800.
• Interest Rates: High borrowing costs have constrained buyers, but markets anticipate the Bank of Canada policy rate could stabilize near 2.25% through late 2026 and into 2027.
• Victoria Dynamics: Regionally, detached homes have trended toward a seller’s market, while the condo sector remains more balanced. Though affordability is still the primary hurdle for Victoria buyers, rising inventory provides them with more options.

Ultimately, better affordability and years of pent-up demand set the stage for a stronger 2027, but the market will remain quiet and cautious through the close of this year.